Tracktown, USA: Women’s 5K Preview, Anybody’s Race?

by Chris McClung

Review of the Basics

• Date: Thursday, June 28 (TONIGHT!)
• Start times and TV Schedule: Men at 8:45 pm CST, Women at 9:20 pm CST
• Channel: NBC Sports HD (1640 for ATT, 1646 for TW)
• Olympic A Standard times: Men – 13:20 (64.0 seconds per lap), Women – 15:20 (73.6 seconds per lap)
• Start list: http://www.usatf.org/Events—Calendar/2012/U-S–Olympic-Team-Trials-TF/Results.aspx

The women’s 5K has all of the ingredients for drama and great stories. The final tonight has 7 athletes (out of 16) who already have the A standard and another 4 athletes within 10 seconds of it. Of those with the A standard, 6 of them have qualifying seed times within 7 seconds of each other.

What does that mean? The race should be tight and incredibly tactical with all of the runners dancing around the track, waiting to see what the others might do. Expect a tight, close race with lots of drama through to the finish! Also, expect that your top 3 finishers will make your Olympic team, and that those 3 will all earn their first Olympic berths.

This won’t be the most talent-filled or fastest race, but it might be the most fun and interesting!

Sorting through the list of finalists, 3 clear favorites emerge – Julia Lucas, Molly Huddle, and Julie Culley. They all appear to be the most fit and ready to take top 3 in this race. Outside of this group though, there are a handful of relative “dark horses” who could spoil their party with a little help including Lisa Uhl, Magdalena Boulet, Elizabeth Maloy and collegiate Abbey D’Agostino.

Here are some of the stories:

Lauren Fleshman: The Lion

Lauren’s recent story is an inspiring one. She finished 7^th in last year’s World Championships as the first non-African athlete and was at the top of her game just under a year ago. She went on from there to run her first marathon, finishing 12^th at the 2011 NYC Marathon in a very solid 2:37. Not bad for a 5K runner! But, this effort would leave her with pesky IT band issues. Since New York, she has been cross training heavily and has managed to run no more than 12 miles TOTAL per week since February. To even make the final is an amazing story of courage and perseverance. She won’t be able to compete for the win tonight but expect her to leave everything on the track and fight until the end.

If you haven’t watched Lauren’s interview after the 5K prelim, then you must now. Here is the link: http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/248612-2012-US-Olympic-Team-Trials-Track-Field/video/644242-Lauren-Fleshman-Makes-Final-off-11miles-a-week-2012-Eugene-Olympic-Team-Trials. Inspiring! My favorite quote from the interview talking about fear of failure: “Failing doesn’t mean you are a failure… so why not try?”

 

Julia Lucas: Comeback Queen

Julia Lucas entered the professional ranks as a decorated collegiate runner in 2007 and expected her results to continue to build. They did not. ~3 years into her pro career, she was running times slower than her college years. At that point, she was dropped by her sponsor and struggling to survive as a pro. So, fed up and discouraged, she stopped running one day. One day turned into two days and two days into one week, until nine months went by with little to no running. It took a return to the basics and her college roots in Raleigh, NC where she spent the summer of 2010. There she trained with her old teammates and simplified her life – back to the basics of running, eating, and sleeping to regain fitness and her passion for the sport. Now, she trains with Nike’s Oregon Track Club and has the 2012 US leading 5K time. She is poised to make her first Olympic team, just 2 years after returning to the sport. Will the comeback be complete tonight?!?

Lisa Uhl: The Next Great US Hope?

You might remember Lisa Uhl (formerly Lisa Koll) from the 10K final last Friday. She is already an Olympian in the 10K and is looking to make her 2^nd US team in the 5K, but in this race, she is not a favorite. When Lisa graduated from Iowa State in 2010 as a 4-time NCAA champ, she moved to Portland to train in the same group with Olympic Bronze Medalist Shalane Flanagan. Expectations were sky high… she was dubbed the “heir apparent” to Shalane’s dominance, expecting to jump right in and start competing on the world stage. It, however, hasn’t played out that way. She pushed too hard, too soon, trying to keep up with Shalane in workouts and ended up with a torn Plantar Fascia and stress fracture in her foot during her first year as a professional. Since then, she has been regaining fitness and is looking to compete on the world stage for really the first time. Tired from the 10K and still seeking her top form, she will likely not make the team in this event. But, expect her to assert herself at some point in the race and go for it. Can she re-kindle the magic of her college years?

Molly Huddle: American Record Holder

Molly is an athlete that just loves to run. In high school, her school didn’t have a cross-country team, so she created one. Coached by her father, she won the New York State Championship as a team of one.  At college at Notre Dame, she had continued success placing as an All-American 10 times at the NCAA level. Since turning pro, she has continued to get faster, setting the American Record for the 5K in 2010. Since 2010, however, she has dealt with foot issues and is only recently returning to her prior form. Based on her prelim result, she is looking fit and poised to race well tonight. Expect her to compete strongly for the win. Can she go from High School state champion to US champion?

Magdalena Lewy Boulet: The Old Lady of the Field

Magdalena (“Magda”) is the oldest woman on the start list at 37 years old. This is her last chance to compete for an Olympic spot. As a member of the US Marathon Team in 2008 in Beijing, she is a salty road race veteran. In January, she competed in the US Marathon Trials and was hoping to return to the Olympics as a marathoner. Her 10^th place finish there wasn’t enough, so she turned to the track in hopes of making the team at the shorter distances. With a strong marathon training base, she PR’d at the 5K distance in 2011 and her seed time is the 5^th fastest of those in this race. With her age and marathon experience, many would say that she has no business competing with the “young bucks” on the track. Magda doesn’t seem to care. Will she show the next generation how it’s done or will this be her swan song?

My prediction: This race will be “slow” and tactical from the gun. Expect the group to stay tightly bunched until late in the race, where the favorites will then start putting pressure on the field. Huddle, Culley, and/or Uhl will start forcing the pace with ~3-4 laps to go, and then it will be a race of attrition. From there it will string out quickly until there are 3-4 left with 1.5 laps to go. Your team will come down to who has the best finishing kick, and I think the favorites will rule the day by the end with Culley, Huddle, and Lucas making the team (3^rd through 1^st). Watch for the collegiate D’Agostino to snag a potential surprise podium spot if one of those 3 falter, but sadly, I don’t think the race will be fast enough to get her the A standard regardless of where she finishes.

Tracktown, USA: Women’s 10K Preview

Women’s 10,000m Preview: Foregone Conclusion or Fairy-tale Ending?

Review of The Basics

• Date: Today, Friday, June 22
• Start times and TV Schedule: Men at 8:45 pm CST, Women at 9:20 pm CST
• Channel: NBC Sports HD (1640 for ATT, 1646 for TW)
• Olympic A Standard times: Men – 27:45 (66.6 seconds per lap), Women – 31:45 (76.2 seconds per lap)
• Start list: http://www.usatf.org/events/2012/OlympicTrials-TF/entry/status.asp

The most intriguing thing about the women’s race is that it is guaranteed to produce 3 new Olympians. Unlike the men’s race, however, the women’s field is far from the deepest in recent history. Injuries to Deena Kastor and Jen Rhines (former Olympians) and decisions by others to focus on alternative events like the marathon or 5K have left the field depleted of the top talent.

The field can be divided into 3 groups:

1)   Shalane Flanagan: She is the Olympic Bronze medalist in the 10K that I discussed in my preview and is in a class of her own. She won the Olympic Trials in the marathon in January and has opted to focus on that event. She will race tonight and is the clear favorite to win, but has already said she will not take a spot on the Olympic team in this event.

2)   Lisa Uhl, Amy Hastings, and Janet Cherobon-Bawcum: These 3 athletes all have the “A standard” for the 10K and are the only athletes besides Shalane with the Standard Time in the field. None of them have been Olympians before, so that provides some excitement. But, they also have no incentive to push the pace and help the other athletes achieve a fast time. If no one else earns an A Standard tonight, then these 3 women will be your Olympic team even if they finish dead last.

3)   Everyone else: The remaining 20 women have not reached the A standard so must do it in this race, tonight, or they will be left off the team no matter what place they achieve. This will be a tall task as none of these women have run within 15 seconds of the standard, and only 3 have run within 30 seconds of it. The real question for this group: who will be brave enough to go for it? Or will a group of them work together to set a solid, early pace? Will this race have a fairy-tale ending or is the team a foregone conclusion?

Here are some of the stories to watch:

Amy Hastings – The Impetuous Racer

Amy famously finished 4^th in the Olympic Marathon Trials in January. I talk about her in my blog from the Marathon Trials here. She was one spot from a team then, and now looks poised to punch her ticket to London tonight. The knock on Amy has always been her impatience. Much like the late, great Steve Prefontaine, she is an impetuous racer who is always pressing the pace, causing her too often to make poor tactical decisions or do more work than she should in races. This has left her with mixed and some times mediocre results up until this year. The question tonight is: will she stay patient and let the race unfold in front of her, knowing that she will have a strong closing kick? Or, will she press an honest pace from the beginning to test the group, knowing that it could also carry someone else to a fast time and spot on the team in her place? For her sake, I hope she is patient, but for the race’s sake, I hope she holds nothing back!

Janet Cherbon-Bawcum – The American Dreamer

Janet is 33, one of the older athletes in the race. She is only recently a US citizen as of last September, having been born in Kenya. But, this is no story of a ringer-runner-turned-US-citizen who will dominate the race. She grew up in a part of Kenya where running was socially unacceptable for females and didn’t start running until high school. She moved to the US to attend a DII university in Arkansas, Harding University, recruited to run there by a coach who saw potential in a relatively “slow” young Kenyan girl who boasted a 5K PR still north of 20 minutes at the time.  While working extra jobs to send money home to family in Kenya, she thrived at the DII level, eventually winning 3 DII national titles, but went on to nursing school after graduation receiving no offers for sponsorship or to join an Olympic Development team. But, she kept running and working hard, getting faster. Now, she has won 2 national road titles in the last 12 months, and comes to Eugene fit and ready to make an Olympic team. I think she will do it tonight, regardless of how the race goes. And, she will do as a perfect representative of what the American dream can be.

Alisha Williams – The Accountant

Alisha comes into this race with a 10K PR that is 18 seconds off of the Olympic A standard. If anyone can hit the standard tonight, she is the one. She has lowered her 10K PR by over a minute in the last year and has several, recent and prominent results including a 2^nd place finish in the US Road Mile. Her day job… she is a full-time accountant, complete with a LinkedIn Profile here  (http://www.linkedin.com/in/alishawilliamscpa). She is proof that runners at the Trials come from all places. But, without the A standard, she must run the race of her life. Can she do it? I am rooting for her!

Katie McGregor – The Little Engine that Could?

Even with 4 US national titles and 3 NCAA titles to her name, Katie McGregor is more famous for what she hasn’t done that what she has done. Her claim to fame: finishing 4^th at the last 2 Olympic Trials for the 10K, one spot from making the team in 2004 and 2008. This race is likely her last chance to truly go for it, but she still needs to the hit the A standard, and her recent fitness is a question mark. It is hard to say where she will finish tonight, but you can count on this… she will stick her nose in the race and go for it. She has nothing to lose.

Stephanie Rothstein And Kellyn Johnson – Teammates and Allies?

Like Aaron Braun in the men’s 10K, Stephanie and Kellyn are teammates from McMillan Elite in Flagstaff. You can pick them out on the track by their purple and reddish Adidas kits. Both of them have similar personal bests, but they need to chop nearly a minute off of their PRs to get the A standard. That said, they have shown strong recent fitness and potential. Stephanie is a 2:29 marathoner and went into the Olympic Marathon Trials as a top 10 favorite, although suffered an injury in the race and did not finish. This race is her chance for redemption, and I wouldn’t be surprised if these two teammates worked together to force the pace if no one else will.

My prediction: My heart wants to see a fairy-tale ending, and I hope that a surprise name earns an Olympic spot. But, the cynic in me prevails this time. A coalition of “everyone else” will push the pace early and go after the Olympic A standard, but the favorites will be the only ones standing by the end. I predict that Shalane wins easily with Cherbon-Bawcum and Hastings rounding out the top 3, and Uhl will join those two on the Olympic team.

 

Tracktown, USA: The Basics + Men’s 10K Preview

by Chris McClung

The first big race is tonight with the 10,000m Finals for men and women. I will attempt to approach these previews less like a sports writer or track geek and more like a storyteller.  So, here we go…

(Missed my intro to this blog series? You can catch it here for context)

Before I get to the 10K preview, let’s start with some basic info, so you can follow the events more closely:

The TV schedule

Set your DVRs now. Here is the TV schedule by day with the events to be aired during each TV segment:

http://running.competitor.com/2012/06/news/2012-u-s-olympic-trials-track-field-tv-schedule_54150

 A few things to note:

- Some of the events are shown on NBC Sports HD (channel 1640 for AT&T Uverse and 1646 for Time Warner), and some are shown on NBC (channels 4 or 1004 on AT&T and 4 or 1521 on TW). Note the differences. In general, weeknight races will be shown on NBC Sports and weekend races on NBC.

- The TV schedule at the above link shows TV times in Eastern time, while the events listed under each segment show their Pacific start time. That is ridiculously confusing. Subtract 1 hour from the Eastern times to match our TV times, and add 2 hours to the event schedule to see which events will be shown live during each segment. Note: the downtime between each event will be used to replay events taking place before live TV kicks on.

- I will give you event-specific info before each event preview and will use only Central Times, so you will know exactly when/where to watch.

Olympic Qualifying Basics

This can be confusing for the distance events because Olympic Qualifying times become a factor to make the team, and not all athletes in the field will have reached the Olympic Qualifying times. You will hear about A standards and B standards, Olympic standards and Olympic Trials standards. Boiling it down to the basics, the US will send 3 athletes to the Olympics in each of the previewed events.

And, those 3 athletes who qualify will be the 3 athletes in the race with the highest places that ALSO have run the Olympic Qualifying “A Standard” time in that particular event (either prior to the race or in the race itself). For this reason, race tactics become interesting because certain athletes in the field will need not only to place highly but also a specific time in order to make the team. Both time and place matter.

It should also be noted that, since these Trials also serve as our National Championships this year, there are athletes who race in certain events who may choose not to go to the Olympics in that event even if they qualify.

Now to the 10K…

10,000m Event Preview

The Basics

• Date: Today, Friday, June 22
• Start times and TV Schedule: Men at 8:45 pm CST, Women at 9:20 pm CST
• Channel: NBC Sports HD (1640 for ATT, 1646 for TW)
• Olympic A Standard times: Men – 27:45 (66.6 seconds per lap), Women – 31:45 (76.2 seconds per lap)
• Start list: http://www.usatf.org/events/2012/OlympicTrials-TF/entry/status.asp

Men’s Preview: Former Olympians vs. the Other Guys

This is the deepest men’s 10K field at the Trials in recent history. With 8 runners holding the Olympic A standard, and another 5 within 10 seconds of it, this race is setting up to be good and fast. Your top 3 finishers will almost certainly run faster than 27:45 (66.6 sec laps) and make the Olympic Team. The one question will be… who in the field is willing to keep the pace honest from the start?

Of the 13 runners who have a legitimate shot, 3 of them – Galen Rupp, Dathan Ritzenhein, and Matt Tegenkamp – were Olympians in 2008 and are your favorites. The other 10 contenders are all hard-working, blue-collar runners, each of them will need some magic but any could find themselves on the podium. Those 10 contenders (in no particular order) are Robert “Bobby” Curtis, Chris Derrick, Bobby Mack, Ben True, Brent Vaughn, Tim Nelson, Scott Bauhs, Ryan Vail, Joseph Chirlee, and Aaron Braun.

Here of some of the stories to watch:

Galen Rupp – The Lebron James of US Distance Running

Galen Rupp is the Lebron James of distance running. Plucked from a soccer field at age 12, he has been coached by Alberto Salazar (the great American marathoner) and essentially sponsored by Nike since then. His athletic development has occurred with a silver spoon in his mouth, and he has both fans and critics because of it. For the longest time, critics claimed that he couldn’t close… couldn’t finish (sound familiar Lebron fans?), but now his finishing kick is one of the most devastating in the field. Given his recent form, it will take a serious mishap or choke job for him to lose this race.

The big question with him: will he help his training partner Dathan Ritzenhein with early pacing because Dathan still needs his Olympic A Standard time? [Note: you can read about Dathan in my blog from the Olympic Marathon Trials here). He attempts to make the team in the 10K after missing it in the marathon.] Either way, look for Galen to keep the pace honest early and then close hard and fast with his punishing kick to get the win.

Chris Derrick – The Bridesmaid

Chris just graduated from Stanford. Chris’s running career so far can be summed up with one phrase: “Always the bridesmaid, never the bride.” He finished his running career at Stanford as arguably the fastest American collegiate never to have won an NCAA title. He finished 2^nd, 3^rd, or 4^th in NCAA final races 8 times, always right there and every time outkicked. Can he win tonight? Probably not. Can he make the team and cast off his demons from college? We shall see…

Bobby Mack – The Scrapper

Bobby is one of the athletes who still needs the A standard (and a lot to go right) in order to make the team. He will surely go for it though.  He is that kind of guy – a fighter. In the past year, Bobby has 3 US titles (in cross country, road, and trail), but still has no sponsor. He has a Master’s Degree but currently works at a local running store in North Carolina to make ends meet and to get the gear he needs to furnish/support his 100+ mile weeks. Will he get the last laugh and prove his would-be sponsors wrong, laughing all the way to London?

Aaron Braun – The Hard-Working Dad

Aaron is probably the least known but most accomplished and versatile runner in the professional ranks at the moment. He trains with Team McMillian Elite in Flagstaff, Arizona, a team sponsored by Adidas under a similar model as Rogue Athletic Club. In the past 18 months, Aaron has finished on the podium in races ranging from one mile to 10 miles… oh, and he became a dad in the process (8 months ago).  He recently lowered his 5K personal best to 13:20, which means that he now has the credentials that give him an outside shot to make the team here. As one of the few fathers in the field, can he make his new daughter proud?

My prediction: The race will be honest from the start but stay close with a pack of 5-7 until the final mile. Rupp and Ritzenhein will make the team with a “surprise” 3^rd like Curtis, Derrick, or even Braun sneaking in with a fast finish.

Check back this afternoon for my preview of the women’s race.